Industry insiders believe the next Bitcoin bull run will occur in 2024 or early 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin’s fourth halving.
As the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell below $2 trillion this week, leading crypto CEOs began to worry about a potential long-term bear market or “crypto winter.”
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to rise beyond $68,000 in 2021 and continued to fall below $40,000 in early 2022, inflicting large losses for big crypto investors like MicroStrategy.
According to Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of the Ethereum blockchain, a future crypto winter might be beneficial to the sector by providing a boost in upgrading technology. Lower cryptocurrency pricing, Buterin argued in a Bloomberg interview on Saturday, might help to foster long-term sustainable initiatives while removing short-term speculative attention:
“A lot of those applications fade away during the winters, and you can see which projects are genuinely long-term sustainable, both in terms of their models and their teams and people.”
People that are “deep into crypto, and especially building stuff,” according to the 28-year-old cryptocurrency billionaire, really prefer a down market. “They want the bear market because when prices move up by such large amounts for such long periods of time — it clearly makes a lot of people happy — but it also tends to bring a lot of extremely short-term speculative attention,” Buterin noted.
If this is correct, cryptocurrency projects will have plenty of time to perfect their technology before the next rally, which some crypto experts say may not happen until late 2024.
The next Bitcoin bull run, according to Du Jun, co-founder of Huobi crypto exchange, will not come until 2024, and will most likely happen after Bitcoin’s fourth halving, which is projected to take place in July 2024.
Due to a programming slowdown in the new BTC supply, all three prior BTC halvings, including the most recent one in 2020, generated subsequent growth in the Bitcoin price. The forthcoming Bitcoin halving, which happens every four years, will cut the Bitcoin block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Du emphasized that the crypto market has been moving in cycles connected to halvings, citing a major crypto winter in 2018 that followed the second Bitcoin halving and subsequent rebound in 2017.
“We are already in the early stages of a bear market if this circle continues. Following this cycle, we won’t be able to greet the next Bitcoin bull market until the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025.”
Bitcoin Halving Chart
This is Bitcoin’s halving chart. Source: Investopedia
Du went on to say that it’s difficult to predict crypto market cycles precisely because there are so many other variables, such as geopolitical crises like war, COVID-19, and others.
Jirayut Srupsrisopa, CEO of Bitkub Capital Group Holdings, a large Thailand-based crypto exchange, previously claimed that the BTC halving will usher in a “golden age” for Bitcoin and the wider crypto markets in 2024.
Kraken CEO Jesse Powell also mentioned an approaching crypto winter in late 2021, noting that anything under $40,000 was a “buying opportunity.”
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $37,653, down nearly 33% in the last 365 days.
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